Donald Trump’s Economy Not The “Best Ever” Even Before the Pandemic

Donald Trump likes to take credit for things that are handed to him, and America’s economy is no exception.

Before the pandemic, Trump frequently claimed that he inherited a “dismal” economy, which he turned into the best America has ever seen. Both of these claims are false.

1) Donald Trump inherited a very strong economy.

When Donald Trump took office, the economy had seen seven straight years of job growth. The growth seen under the Trump administration is a continuation of that during Obama’s presidency.

Many Americans agree that the economy was strong during Trump’s first three years, and he can take credit insofar as he did not destroy what he was given. Middle-class incomes rose, in large part because of the 10-year trend in job growth. And GDP was strong, maintaining Obama-era levels, although it never hit Trump’s 4-6 percent growth promise.

WHAT HAPPENED TO GDP UNDER TRUMP?

Between 2017 to 2019, average growth was of 2.7 percent per year. Average growth during the Biden administration was 3.6 percent. Under Bill Clinton, it was 3.9 percent; Ronald Reagan, 3.5 percent; Jimmy Carter 3.3 percent; Lyndon Johnson 5.4 percent. Harry Truman even beat out Trump at 3.8 percent. The fact is that Trump’s record on economic growth is pathetic.

2) Even using only pre-COVID numbers, the Trump Administration underperformed the Obama and the Biden-Harris administrations in several key areas.

Job Growth in Obama’s last three years all beat Trump’s best year

President Obama inherited an economic downturn not seen since the Great Depression. Even then, his administration turned job losses into year-over-year gains. President Obama created 1.6 million more jobs in his last three years of office than Trump over the first three years of his presidency. The rate of job growth decreased under Trump.

Average monthly job gains were 250,000 in 2014, 227,000 in 2015 and 195,000 in 2016, followed by growth of 176,000, 193,000 and 178,000 in 2017, 2018 and 2019 respectively.

The rate of job growth under Biden-Harris crushed Trump

If you exclude the COVID pandemic from the numbers — which is being generous because how a president handles a crisis is an important consideration — total employment increased by 6.2 million from 2017 through 2019, an average annual gain of 1.4 percent. Factoring in the crisis, the Trump administration oversaw the loss of 3.1 million jobs. Since Biden took office in 2021, the economy has added 15.7 million jobs, which is an average annual gain of 2.9 percent. 

The highest yearly rate of GDP growth under Trump is still less than the highest growth under Obama or Biden

The Obama administration saw three years of GDP growth that were higher than any under Trump and one that was tied. GDP growth saw its best year in 2015 at 3.1 percent, which is slightly higher than 2018 gains of 3 percent.

Donald Trump’s tax cuts do appear to have spurred a brief boost in 2018, but growth was down again to 2.2 percent in 2019. Since the pandemic, GDP has shrunk, with estimates that the contraction in 2020 will be roughly 6.5 percent.

Again, average growth during the Biden administration was 3.6 percent. Under Bill Clinton, it was 3.9 percent; Ronald Reagan, 3.5 percent; Jimmy Carter 3.3 percent; Lyndon Johnson 5.4 percent. Harry Truman even beat out Trump at 3.8 percent. The fact is that Trump’s record on economic growth is pathetic.

The trade deficit hit a 10-year high in 2018

Economists disagree over whether trade deficits are detrimental to the economy. However, Donald Trump campaigned on the idea that deficits are bad and that he would lower them. Instead, his trade wars created deficits.

Biden was better for business investment

Between 2018 and 2020, the years after Trump’s corporate tax giveaway, business investment increased by an average of 2.6 percent. Biden-Harris numbers blow this away at a 5.1 percent annual increase.

Biden and Harris are also better for entrepreneurship, and Harris has plans to make starting new businesses even easier. Under Biden and Harris, new monthly business starts averaged 442,560, 45 percent more per month than under Trump.

Trump’s economy left many Americans behind

In 2019, as Trump bragged about presiding over the best economy ever, 45 percent of Americans reported having zero dollars in savings and 69 percent reported having less than $1,000 in the bank.

Donald Trump equates the stock market with the economy, so he is incapable of understanding the difficulty many Americans face as they live paycheck to paycheck.

In fact, the top 10 percent of households by net worth control 87.2 percent of the market. Trump lives in a world that leaves most Americans behind.

All of this data compares the Obama economy with Trump’s best three years. Because of the pandemic, Trump will leave office with a net 0 percent GDP growth and negative job growth. And he cannot dismiss those numbers.

Donald Trump’s magical thinking and inability to handle a crisis cannot be separated from this economy. His lack of action to control COVID-19 through steady guidance, expanded testing, and contact tracing, coupled with his demands to reopen without proper safety measures have resulted in a country that is entering the fall with the highest daily infection rates since the pandemic began.

What if Donald Trump is tested again unexpectedly during a second Trump term? He has shown America what he will do. Ignore, deflect, divide, complain, and shrink from the challenge. America cannot afford another four years of failure.